UPL’s stock price surged nearly 1% to Rs 543.70, a day after the company posted a consolidated net loss of Rs 189 crore for the second quarter of FY24, compared to a net profit of Rs 814 crore in Q2FY23. From India’s operations, the company’s revenue was Rs 1,387 crore during the quarter, as compared to Rs 1,809 crore in Q2FY23, according to a regulatory filing.
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UPL’s share price fell 7.59% in the last five days, 10.80% in the last one month, 28% in the last six months and 25.83% in the last year.
Should you buy, sell or hold UPL shares?
Jefferies: Buy – Target Price 675
“UPL’s Q2 was a miss to JEFe, and we factor lowerest vs company FY24e outlook. We cut FY24-26e EPS by 9-10%, baking in QoQ improvement in 2H as key geographies enter cropping season. Also, UPL expects to realize cost reduction of $100mn over next 2Y; ~50% in FY24e. We now est FY23-26 sales CAGR at +3%, but forecast PAT CAGR at +19%, driven by deleveraging. In view of the sluggish industry scenario, we cut target PE to 9x now at 25% discount to hist 5-yr avg (vs 10x). Retain ‘Buy’ on inexpensive valuation. Revised Target Price of Rs 675.”
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JM Financial: Buy – Target Price: Rs 800
“We believe that even negative 5% growth might be difficult task given that would mean mid-teen kind of YoY growth in 2HFY24. Hence, our revised assumptions bake in negative 9% EBITDA growth for FY24. We had indicated in one of our reports (click here) that price normalisation of generic agrochemicals will only happen gradually. Hence, in our view, things are likely to improve only gradually over the next few quarters for generic players. Factoring in 2QFY24 results and commentary, we have lowered our FY24/25/26 EBITDA estimates by 12%/9%/4% and PAT estimates by 28%/15%/10%, baking in higher finance cost. We maintain BUY with a revised Dec’24 Target Price of Rs 800 (vs. Sep’24 Target Price of Rs 880 earlier) on account of value unlocking of the specialty chemicals business.”
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Centrum Broking: Buy – Target Price: Rs 771
“We believe under the current global agrochemical environment, the guidance seems quite difficult to achieve. Based on 1H performance, we have lowered our FY24E/ FY25E EBITDA estimates by 15%/ 16% while introducing FY26E estimates. We have also lowered our EV/ EBITDA multiple for UPL SAS from 15x to 12x and UPL Corporation from 6.0x to 5.5x considering the current market conditions. We maintain ‘Buy’ rating on UPL with SOTP-based revised Target Price of Rs 771 (earlier Rs 949). Demerger of UPL’s four platforms remains a medium term trigger for the stock.”
(The recommendations in this story are by the respective research analysts and brokerage firms. FinancialExpress.com does not bear any responsibility for their investment advice. Capital markets investments are subject to rules and regulations. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.)