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State election outcome fuels optimism for a new bull phase in the market

Dalal Street edged higher on Friday as the NSE Nifty 50 soared 0.78% to hit a fresh high of 20,291.55 during intra-day trade and subsequently settled at a record high of 20,267.90, up 134.75 or 0.67, while the BSE Sensex added as much as 492.75 points to settle at 67,481.19. On a weekly basis, the Nifty soared by 2.41%, mirroring the BSE Sensex, which also recorded a substantial surge of 1,511.15 points or 2.29% gain last week.  

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“The buoyancy of the global markets, especially the US, has played a critical role in the recent up move and we expect the same to continue. We are eyeing the 20,500-20,750 zone in the Nifty and expect the index to hold the 19,850-20,050 zone, in case of any profit taking. While all the sectors are contributing to the move, a catch-up move in banking, FMCG and IT pack may result in selective outperformance so align your trades accordingly. Though the broader indices have been consistently beating the benchmark, we feel it is now time to be careful in stock picking in Midcap and Smallcap space and prefer high quality names,” Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking. 

State-Assembly Elections 

In the assembly elections held in the five states, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress party emerged victorious in Telangana. The results for the Mizoram state assembly elections are scheduled to be released today. 

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“I think this is working well for the investors. Investors definitely want to see consistency in the growth process and progress in the country, and that is where I think they want us to see a higher amount of convincing majority. The 2024 election is ahead, and the same equation will be played: his government is giving a consistent look to growth. Certainly, I think that the government will come into power, and that’s where the market is going to attract a lot of new money. Whether tomorrow it goes up or thereafter it comes down, that’s a different issue. However, it is going to attract a lot of money in the coming months and years. So one must remain extremely convinced and positive about the prospects of India’s market going forward,” said Deven Choksey, Managing Director, DR Choksey Finserv.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities said that a new Bull Phase with a clear support for growth awaits the market following a strong mandate for the ruling party at the Center in 3 out of 5 state poll results. “A stable political environment could further boost investors’ confidence and drive the markets higher, with the possibility of benchmark Nifty attaining 20,500-20,800 levels going ahead appears bright. Optimistic global trends including signs of foreign investors making a comeback in domestic markets are  major factors that will drive the upward movement going forward,” Prashanth Tapse added.

“The outcome of state election results hints towards continued uprun in markets.  While part of the outcome was discounted in advance, there is a scope for a further upmove discounting the positive surprises coming out from the results. Having said that, we could witness some profit taking at higher levels due to end of a near term uncertainty. If FPIs indulge in large short covering in F&O markets and increase momentum of buying in cash markets post these results, Nifty could keep rising at a healthy pace beyond a couple of days. Markets will also look forward to fresh triggers from now (other than flows) till the middle of January even as a lot of FPIs will reduce their activity levels post Dec 15 due to year-end holidays,” said Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities. 

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